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Well. From one perspective, Australia's protracted campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and sometimes outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the talks on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a conference hindered from the leadership if his government led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for increasing carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and deliver an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the best chance available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.