How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an impending US-Russia leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest twist in Trump's attempts to broker an conclusion to war in Ukraine â a subject of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided the president leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president gained from a long record of siding with Israel since his initial presidency, including his choice to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu â a position that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - then to back off in the face of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.
The president often boasts about his skill to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the war any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be using Trump's desire for a deal â and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia called Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The next day, the president hosted Zelensky at the White House, but departed without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he said.
But the president of Ukraine later commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine â for our nation â Russia almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region â even territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines â something the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since abandoned that commitment, saying that concluding the hostilities is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power â and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when neither side desires, or is able to, give up the fight.